Not long ago, 3-year-old fillies were winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe so frequently – four times between 2008 and 2017 – that people talked about changing the Arc weights to lessen the advantage conferred to that set of horses. Then they stopped winning: Enable in 2017 was the last.
The drought might help explain why the 3-year-old filly Minnie Hauk is not a more defined favorite to win this year’s renewal of one of the world’s most important races Sunday at Longchamp. Minnie Hauk, after all, in her last three starts won Group 1s in the Oaks at Epsom, the Irish Oaks, and the Yorkshire Oaks, where she faced older rivals. As of Friday, English bookmakers offered her at a general 7-2 to defeat 16 foes going 1 1/2 miles over a Longchamp turf course that could, after late-week rain in Paris, come up good-to-soft, perhaps simply soft.
Other factors push up the price. It’s not like her connections long targeted this race. Minnie Hauk gained entry only after Coolmore, her owners, ponied up a supplementary entry fee on Tuesday. Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, will go down as one of the best ever, but the Arc has not been his race. Despite having at least one and usually multiple runners every year, O’Brien has won but two Arcs, with Dylan Thomas in 2007 and with Found in 2016. The Oaks? Might not have been such a great race this year. The Yorkshire Oaks? Minnie Hauk beat only two rivals. One of them, runner-up Estrange, was entered in the Arc but withdrawn from the competition Thursday.
Minnie Hauk, then, might not shine as brightly as her 7-6-1-0 record. The favorite looks more like just another plausible winner of Sunday’s contest.
Only one other runner, the France-based 4-year-old filly Aventure, had attracted enough antepost play that her Friday odds were less than double-digits. Aventure gives Minnie Hauk six pounds but might still rate a stronger chance.
Bred and owned by Alain and Gerard Wertheimer, and trained by Christophe Ferland, Aventure finished second behind Bluestocking in the 2024 Arc, and, consequently, her connections have aimed toward this race all year. Her season has split into two parts. Aventure made three early starts, winning twice and finishing second to top-class Calandagan (not Arc-eligible because he’s a gelding) in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on June 29. Unraced the rest of the summer, Aventure returned Sept. 7 and won her Arc prep, the Prix Vermeille, by a comfortable margin over Arc runner Gezora, a Peter Brant-owned 3-year-old filly. Aventure unleashed a strong turn of foot in upper stretch to seize a commanding lead, holding firm to the finish in what looked like an ideal prep. Ferland and jockey Maxim Guyon both seek their first Arc victory.
Sosie, trained by eight-time Arc winner Andre Fabre, also carries the Wertheimer silks and also merits respect. The 4-year-old colt, fourth in the 2024 Arc, was campaigned along the same lines as Aventure, getting that same summer break. While he finished second behind the Japanese horse Byzantine Dream in his Arc prep, the Prix Foy, Sosie probably handles softer going better than Byzantine Dream and the other two Japanese runners, Japan Derby winner Croix du Nord and Alohi Alii. Byzantine Dream and Croix du Nord, rated the better chances, drew deleterious outside posts.
Kalpana attempts to follow Bluestocking as an England-based 4-year-old filly winning the Arc for Juddmonte. Rated a serious Arc player much of the year, she lost luster finishing second to Arc longshot Giavellotto in the September Stakes at Kempton Park. Trainer Andrew Balding races Kalpana in cheek pieces Sunday for the first time.
Other longer prices – horses like Daryz and Cualificar – look less logical, but in an Arc like this, lacking standouts, with uncertain course conditions, logic might play only a supporting role.
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