ARCADIA, Calif. – The $2 pick six is in trouble this fall at Santa Anita.
Pick six handle the first two weeks of the meet plummeted 50 percent from the first two weeks of the 2024 autumn meet – from $1.26 million to less than $639,000.
One reason is evident Friday. A pick six carryover of $45,583 jazzes up a strong program, but the Santa Anita-specific wager is cannibalized by carryovers that incorporate races from Gulfstream Park – the $1 Sunset Pick Six ($54,239 carryover) and $1 Coast to Coast Pick 5 ($48,661). The Sunset Pick Six and the Coast to Coast Pick 5 carryovers were moved to Saturday's card after Gulfstream Park canceled Friday racing due to thunderstorms.
The Santa Anita wagering menu will be reevaluated after the autumn meet ends Oct. 26. If the pick six is worth saving, something may have to give.
The pick six sequence Friday has quality, with three strong allowance races. Better yet, the carryover math works well for players.
The $45,583 carryover will partly neutralize the 23.68 percent takeout. If $300,000 in new money is wagered, effective takeout will be less than 10 percent. With $400,000 in new money, effective takeout will be less than 13 percent. The sequence covers races 4-9.
Race 4 is a $20,000 maiden-claiming route for fillies and mares. The dirt mile is the weakest leg of the pick six and presents a surface dilemma. The top choices on the morning line, program favorite Thea and second favorite Caitlin Fever, are unproven on dirt.
The horse to beat is Eastwick, a turf-to-dirt surface switcher who prefers dirt. Second in her most recent dirt starts at Del Mar and Los Alamitos, Eastwick is listed at a surprisingly high 4-1.
Race 5 is a second-level allowance/optional $80,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares on the hillside turf course and includes a potential single. Eleven entered, eight can start with the turf rails at 30 feet. The pace scenario depends on the status of program favorite Bit’s Tiger Magic.
A front-runner, Bit’s Tiger Magic is cross-entered in a California-bred stakes on Sunday. Trainer Peter Miller planned to wait until late this week to decide which race is best for her. If she starts Friday, Bit’s Tiger Magic is the speed, even with blinkers off. But the best “late speed” is the most probable winner.
Egyptian Mau returned in August at Del Mar and flew late to miss by a neck at five furlongs. After starting at 30-1 in her comeback, she could be favored stretching to 6 1/2 furlongs Friday.
“I thought she ran very well,” trainer Neil Drysdale said referring to her comeback. “She’s trained well. She’s Group 1-placed” in South Africa.
Both hillside sprints this meet were won by closers similar to Egyptian Mau. Mike Smith rides the mare, whose rivals include comebacker Jane Austen and also-eligible Home Game.
Race 6 is a sprint for older maidens. Bob Baffert has entered three, including well-meant first-time starter Jude, a 3-year-old Uncle Mo colt who is a sibling to Grade 1 winner Collected. Baffert also entered fast-working comebacker Into Midnight and comebacker Mutaz. Simple Song, a Mark Glatt-trained Munnings gelding, debuts with solid works.
Race 7 is a second-level allowance/optional $80,000 claiming route for fillies and mares at 1 1/8 miles on turf. It’s the perfect spot for Paradise Lake, third under similar conditions in her most recent start two months ago.
“She’s run well at that distance, she got a good draw” in post 7, trainer Peter Eurton said. “She’s training well.”
Rivals include front-running miler Certitude, who could be distance-challenged at 1 1/8 miles. Class-drop closer Hopeful figures as a contender.
Race 8 is a $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Auditory is favored based on a last-out win at Los Alamitos and 2-for-4 record at Santa Anita. Auditory breaks from the rail after the scratch of Gypsy Lynn. Feisty Mitole is speed. Lady of Sky has run fast enough for the level.
Race 9, a California-bred allowance at a mile on turf, offers another potential single in Aggie Ordonez-trained Vodka Vodka. The gelding crushed maidens two starts back under Kent Desormeaux and was subsequently favored in a California-bred allowance. He finished seventh, with an alibi.
ON SALE NOW: DRF Breeders' Cup Packages! Get everything you need to win and save big.
“He had a terrible trip,” Ordonez noted. Vodka Vodka was in traffic, shuffled out of position on the backstretch, and difficult to handle.
“Kent was apologizing before his feet even hit the ground, things just didn’t work out,” Ordonez said.
Vodka Vodka, a sibling to Ordonez’s streaking stakes-winning filly Om N Joy, finished evenly and galloped out in front last time. Ordonez is optimistic for a higher finish Friday by Vodka Vodka.
“I think he’ll win it,” she said.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.