Lake Victoria raced five times at age 2 and won three Group 1s, the last of them the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar. Swelter raced once at age 2 and won a maiden race at Leopardstown. Yet there might not be much between the two fillies when they meet Sunday at The Curragh in the Irish 1000 Guineas.
Both horses have started once this year, Lake Victoria a disappointing fifth as the favorite May 4 in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, Swelter impressively capturing a Group 3 on March 30 at Leopardstown. Lake Victoria would have taken Swelter’s measure as a 2-year-old but must prove after her Newmarket performance she is more than an early developing standout.
Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, a 10-time winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas, believes she will. He said Lake Victoria didn’t show she was ready for Newmarket until about two weeks before the English Guineas, and though the filly was ready to race, she wasn’t ready to win. O’Brien said, and video evidence shows, that Lake Victoria, fresher than ideal, pulled too hard during the race’s early stages and paid the price for it late. That could be true, but at just over even money with English bookmakers on Friday, Lake Victoria seems like a bad bet.
Swelter, despite her lack of top-level credentials and the fact she’s raced but twice, was trading on the market as a distant second choice. A Juddmonte homebred trained by Dermot Weld, who has won the last two renewals of the Irish 1000, Swelter went last to first with a sustained rally beating six foes over one mile in her debut last summer. She returned from a long absence this spring and handled a dozen rivals going seven furlongs around a left-handed bend at Leopardstown, once again displaying smooth acceleration, and in the last half-furlong turning back a bid from the capable O’Brien-trained filly Exactly to win going away.
Flight was four times the price of Lake Victoria on Friday despite soundly defeating her while second last month in the English 1000 Guineas – and don’t count her out. Flight ran five times at age 2 but clearly returned this spring a faster horse, racing in a group of three along the stands’ side rail in the Guineas, with jockey Oisin Murphy waiting longer than anyone else in the race to pull the trigger. Flight cruised into contention like she might run down victorious Desert Flower before going slightly flat, either because she needed the race or because one mile with a stiff uphill finish stretched her stamina.
Also carded Sunday is the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup for older horses over 1 5/16 miles, a race billed as a father-son showdown between the Aidan O’Brien-trained Los Angeles and the Joseph O’Brien-trained White Birch. Los Angeles won the Irish Derby last summer, while White Birch attempts a Tattersalls Gold Cup repeat. The pair met May 5 in the Group 2 Mooresbridge, with Los Angeles prevailing by a neck as the odds-on favorite.
Kalpana makes her first start since an upset, likely occasioned by very soft ground, in the Group 1 British Champion Fillies and Mares in October at Ascot. Anmat, another Tattersalls hope, scored an even less likely upset on the same card, winning the Group 1 Champion Stakes at 40-1.
Prix d’Ispahan
Sosie merits solid favoritism facing six foes in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan on Sunday at Longchamp.
Sosie, a 4-year-old Wertheimer brothers homebred trained by Andre Fabre, rates at this early juncture as the leading older male in France. Third last summer in the French Derby, Sosie went on to win the age-restricted Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, captured his Arc prep in the Prix Niel, and checked in a more than respectable fourth in the Arc itself.
Sosie began his season April 25 in the Group 1 Prix Ganay and held off favored Map of Stars, who had two races this spring, both impressive wins, and presumably a fitness edge on Sosie. Sosie figures to improve Sunday racing over 1 3/16 miles, and if he does, he’s probably not losing.
Sardinian Warrior is the wild card, however. Trained in England by John and Thady Gosden, Sardinian Warrior made his first four starts – one in 2023, three last year – on all-weather surfaces at Southwell and Kempton before switching to turf in his April 30 season debut and capturing a listed one-mile stakes at Ascot.
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