Tuesday at Churchill Downs is the calm before the storm. It’s the only day of Kentucky Derby week without a stakes on the card. The nine-race program, which begins at 12:45 p.m., has a $141,000 allowance on the turf and a $127,000 allowance on the dirt as nominal features on a card that otherwise consists of claiming races.
But the turf allowance, at 1 1/8 miles, offers up a fine puzzle. An overflow field of 11 – 10 may start – includes graded/group stakes winners Tall Boy and West Hollywood; graded stakes-placed Higgins Boat; and stakes-placed Miranda Rights, Out of Deductions, Timeout, and Tapit Shoes. The also-eligible, In a Jam, also is graded placed.
The 5-year-old Tall Boy, winner of the Group 3 U.A.E. 2000 Guineas in early 2023, is returning to a track he loves. In addition to his stakes score, his other two wins have come in allowance company on the Churchill turf – in November 2023 and on May 2, 2024.
“He loves Churchill, which is a beautiful thing,” trainer Doug O’Neill said.
The latter win proved Tall Boy’s last outing for 11 months, as O’Neill said “little stuff added up” to result in an extended layoff. Tall Boy needed the race when he returned to finish eighth in an allowance on Keeneland turf rated good April 8. After breaking last of 12, the horse improved his position somewhat.
“They say a race is equal to three good works,” O’Neill said. “I think he had three good works in that April race at Keeneland. . . . We thought he’d run a little bit better, but again, he hadn’t been out in a while, closer to a year, and even though we had him pretty well fit, it’s just hard to simulate a race in the morning. So he kind of broke flat-footed, and thought [jockey Luan Machado] did a good job of letting him settle, and then he made kind of a mid-race run, and he really didn’t lose any ground down the lane.”
Out of Deductions and West Hollywood emerge from the same Keeneland allowance, which was won by stakes winner Irish Aces. Out of Deductions came on with good courage to finish in a dead heat for second, beaten just a half-length and earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure, among the top last-out numbers in this field. West Hollywood raced in fifth early before running out of punch late to finish seventh. He also likely needed the race, as it was his first start since winning the Grade 3 Saranac in late August.
Higgins Boat, who will be forwardly placed, is getting class relief after three creditable stakes efforts in New Orleans, including a second in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds in February. He was most recently fifth, but beaten just two lengths, in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial last month. That effort leads the last-out figures in this group, with a 94 Beyer.
Native Shaman (90 Beyer), Call Protection (87), and Event Detail (87) are all coming off allowance-level wins on Turfway Park’s Tapeta with figures that stack up well in this group. The quality of the field promises a solid litmus test.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.