ARCADIA, Calif. – The dwindling female dirt division visits Santa Anita for the Grade 3 Santa Maria Stakes on Sunday.
Just five fillies and mares, including two from low-level claiming races, entered the Santa Maria, a 1 1/16-mile race downgraded this year from Grade 2 to Grade 3. The purse of the Santa Maria underwent a similar pitch, from $200,000 to $100,000.
Nafisa and Simply Joking, fifth and fourth in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile last month, are expected to vie for Santa Maria favoritism and the early lead. The likely third choice is late-runner Lemon Muffin. The outsiders are Catalina Cocktail, winner of an $8,000 winter starter allowance at Turf Paradise, and Syntax, last-out winner of a $10,000 claiming race at Santa Anita.
“Obviously not the strongest Santa Maria we’ve seen,” trainer Michael McCarthy accurately noted.
McCarthy starts Simply Joking, whose fourth-place finish in the Beholder was not bad considering it was her first start in 10 weeks. The layoff was not by design.
:: Santa Anita Classic Meet! Get DRF Past Performances, Clocker Reports, and more.
Simply Joking finished third Dec. 28 in the Grade 1 La Brea and subsequently entered the Grade 2 D. Wayne Lukas Stakes on Feb. 7. The seven-furlong Lukas was intended as a prep for the Beholder, but Simply Joking was scratched from the Lukas by the veterinarian.
“I guess the best way of putting it is we never really had a fluid opportunity to see her at her best,” McCarthy said, describing Simply Joking’s double-digit defeat in the Beholder.
As it turns out, the Beholder became a prep for the Santa Maria. McCarthy said Simply Joking has “come back and trained right on schedule, no complaints.”
The filly tuned up last week with a solo work in 59.40 seconds, the fastest five furlongs of the morning.
“I thought that was very good, kind of what we were wanting to see coming into this,” McCarthy said.
Emisael Jaramillo rides Simply Joking, who figures for a cozy trip tucked right behind Nafisa. Simply Joking, a Grade 2 route runner-up last year before finishing last of 13 in the Kentucky Oaks while trained by Whit Beckman, has won two races and $380,750 from eight starts.
Nafisa, trained by Bob Baffert, won the Grade 3 La Canada two starts back before getting dusted in the Beholder. Nafisa relinquished the lead to stablemate and odds-on winner Splendora, chased partway, and surrendered. Nafisa finished last by more than 18 lengths. She has worked well since.
Juan Hernandez rides Nafisa, a 3-for-16 pace-presser facing easier Sunday. It helps Nafisa that three more accomplished stablemates are not in the Santa Maria. Splendora is nominated to Grade 1 races at Churchill Downs, Grade 1 winner Seismic Beauty is up to five furlongs in her comeback works, and undefeated Cavalieri recently was retired.
Although the Santa Maria might be a two-horse race between Simply Joking and Nafisa, Lemon Muffin merits upset consideration. A Grade 3 winner in 2024 for the late D. Wayne Lukas, Lemon Muffin is making her third start since moving to California for trainer Paddy Gallagher.
Lemon Muffin’s first start for Gallagher was a sixth-place comeback last fall at Del Mar in the Grade 3 Bayakoa.
“She was never really into it, but she galloped out very strong,” Gallagher said. “I don’t know if that was an optical illusion, but she galloped out really, really well that race.”
The mare subsequently finished fourth in the Lukas, and on Sunday stretches back to her preferred two-turn trip. Gallagher said she has trained well and will benefit from the extra distance.
“She gives that impression,” Gallagher said. “She seems happy and well.”
Antonio Fresu rides Lemon Muffin, the eighth-place finisher in the 2024 Kentucky Oaks. Lemon Muffin has won two races and $554,743 from 24 starts.
Since the Santa Maria was moved from winter to spring in 2019, the average field size is 5.2. Favorites have won four of the last five editions. The Santa Maria is the local prep for the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Margarita Stakes on May 30.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.