She races with her head turned slightly to the right, but two races into her career, all the 2-year-old filly Tommy Jo has done is turn heads. And if, as her trainer strongly believes will be the case, Tommy Jo transfers her one-turn form around two turns, she will allow you to turn $2 into about $2.40 in the Alcibiades Stakes on Friday, opening day at Keeneland.
Tommy Jo faces just five foes in the Grade 1, $650,000 Alcibiades, a 1 1/16-mile dirt route that’s part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, offering the winner automatic fees-paid entry into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Tommy Jo is already the early favorite for the Juvenile Fillies, a position she can cement if she does what she’ll overwhelmingly be expected to do late Friday afternoon and win the Alcibiades.
Tommy Jo, a Spendthrift Farm homebred by the Spendthrift uber-stallion Into Mischief, stalked the pace, seized command before the homestretch of a July 26 maiden race at Saratoga, and drew away to win her debut by nearly four lengths. The Grade 1 Spinaway on Aug. 30 unfolded similarly, and while it took Tommy Jo a little longer to hit the front in that seven-furlong contest, she won just as easily as in her first start, skipping home 6 1/2 lengths ahead of runner-up Percy’s Bar, on paper her toughest Alcibiades challenger.
“She was one that impressed us from early on,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “She delivered in both those races and has continued to train on as though she’ll appreciate the stretch-out.”
Into Mischief hits at an even higher rate with dirt-route horses than dirt sprinters. Tommy Jo’s dam, Mother Mother, probably best suited seven furlongs to one mile during her racing career. Tommy Jo has responded favorably to rating tactics her first two outings and galloped out after the Spinaway looking for more distance. Pletcher rates her a top 2-year-old route prospect.
“She can be a bit ambitious in her gallops sometimes, but she’s been very professional in her races. I think she has the ability to settle as needed,” he said.
John Velazquez rode Tommy Jo first out, gave way to Kendrick Carmouche in the Spinaway because he rode Fierceness to win the Pacific Classic the same day, and gets back aboard Friday. The morning line sets Tommy Jo as the 2-5 favorite. She could go lower.
Ben Colebrook trains Percy’s Bar for Hat Creek Racing, and Percy’s Bar for most of her career has based at Keeneland. After eye-catching wins at Keeneland and Churchill earlier in the year, she shipped to Saratoga to meet Tommy Jo on that filly’s home track. Colebrook thinks Percy’s Bar will stretch out and appreciate home-court advantage Friday. He also knows what he’s up against.
“We got to have some improvement and maybe some regression from Tommy Jo. If Tommy Jo improves at all, she should be really tough,” Colebrook said.
Percy’s Bar fell farther off the Spinaway pace than Colebrook hoped. He thinks Percy’s Bar, who has run the turn well in her three sprints, should keep Tommy Jo in closer range.
“I do think the two turns should help us. Ideally, we’re going to be stalking, but I don’t think we’ll be as far back as in the Spinaway,” Colebrook said.
Percy’s Bar logged a 58.20-second five-furlong workout Sunday, a very fast work but one accomplished without much urging. Percy’s Bar broke off six or seven lengths behind the two-start maiden Mountain High, cruising up to and past her coming to the wire before the pair galloped out together.
Trainer Kenny McPeek, a five-time Alcibiades winner, runs two last-out Ellis Park maiden winners, Go to Girl and The Grumpy Rabbit. Neither broke the clock in their respective one-mile maiden wins, and while The Grumpy Rabbit drew off by more than six after debuting in a two-turn Saratoga turf contest, it took her 27.49, a very slow raw split, to complete the final quarter of that 1 1/2-turn mile. Go to Girl won by a much smaller margin but faced stronger competition finishing third in her second outing than The Grumpy Rabbit has met.
Haute Diva exits an easy two-turn maiden win, but that start came on turf in Florida. Wonzee, a two-start maiden, has so far looked like a one-run grass closer.
Tommy Jo looks like the Alcibiades winner at a tiny price.
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