Tony Eclipse, since a tame career debut on turf, has turned in four straight fast races on dirt, with two wins, a second, and a third. In those starts, Tony Eclipse has earned an 80 or higher Beyer Speed Figure.
Two of the eight 3-year-olds entered against him in the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes on Saturday at Laurel Park have hit 80 on the Beyer scale, but Sacred Thunder has done so once in eight starts and was beaten nearly five lengths by Tony Eclipse when they met Dec. 7, while Scheduling Dude’s last-start 80 came in a New York-bred allowance and marked a 15-point improvement over his previous top.
Tony Eclipse has won 1 of 3 dirt starts at one mile, but at the Spectacular Bid’s seven-furlong trip, he won the Maryland Juvenile Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths in his most recent start. All that and the fact Maryland queenpin Brittany Russell trains the colt figures to make Tony Eclipse an odds-on favorite in the Spectacular Bid.
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It only seems like Russell never loses with odds-on stakes favorites on her circuit. In actuality, she has gone 15 for 27 with odds-on chalk in Maryland and Delaware dirt stakes over the last five years, formidable but not unopposable. More remarkable is Russell’s overall record at Laurel during the last six months – 63 for 176, a 36 percent strike rate that’s yielded a $2.67 return on investment.
Tony Eclipse, a homebred owned by Stuart Grant’s The Elkstone Group, won’t enhance the ROI but does look likely to boost Russell’s winning percentage with short favorites in Maryland stakes. A horse with plenty of pace, he’s favorably drawn on the outside with a long run down the Laurel backstretch.
“Early on, when we had him, I thought he was going to be like a gallopy, two-turn horse,” Russell told Maryland Jockey Club publicity earlier this week. “He has this newfound speed. I think he’s training better and maybe improving.”
Sacred Thunder, who did not draw favorably, is the leading threat to the favorite. Sacred Thunder drew the rail and, lacking the speed to lead or press, will need racing luck and a heady ride from Jevian Toledo. Tony Eclipse has greater upside than Sacred Thunder and easily bested him in their lone meeting, and Sacred Thunder, while he won a one-mile Delaware maiden, has better form at six furlongs than seven.
Scheduling Dude, in from New York for trainer Rick Dutrow, might stand the best chance at an upset. Scheduling Dude has been a different horse racing on the lead than off it. He’s 2 for 2, both blowout wins, when he’s made the front, and 0 for 2 and badly defeated the two times he hasn’t. Scheduling Dude might have more pace than Tony Eclipse, and maybe if he crosses and clears, he gets brave. Brave enough to hold clear the favorite? Maybe not.
Xtra Heat Stakes
The Spectacular Bid’s sister race, the $100,000 Xtra Heat for 3-year-old fillies at six furlongs, also could have a Russell-trained favorite ridden by Brittany’s husband, Sheldon Russell, but My Charm looks much less imposing than Tony Eclipse.
My Charm won her debut going five furlongs, but that came in an off-the-turf maiden, and My Charm subsequently has shown her best going seven furlongs and one mile. Last out, she ran into 1-5 favorite Caprice in the seven-furlong Gin Talking Stakes, but My Charm got a favorable setup after Caprice was hooked between rivals in a five-furlong speed duel and still could only close to within 1 3/4 lengths of the favorite.
The two horses who lost the Gin Talking pace battle with Caprice, third-place Not Too Late and fourth-place Atlantis Queen, return for the Xtra Heat, but the leading challenger to this Russell trainee would come from Kentucky – if she comes at all. Wisconsin Gal, just a week ago, shipped in from Turfway Park to finish a decent fifth facing stronger competition than this in the $150,000 Renaissance Stakes at Oaklawn, and something approaching her baseline dirt performance level, at least on the Beyers, makes her a leading contender.
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