Forecasting which stallions are poised to have a solid season with their 2-year-olds isn’t just an exercise in predicting market results for the upcoming breeze-up season, it could be valuable knowledge for handicappers evaluating untested juveniles.
The following stallions appear positioned to succeed with their juveniles in the marketplace and on the track this year, based on the trajectory of their careers, their mares bred, commercial factors, and other clues.
Gun Runner
Horse of the Year Gun Runner was immediately a phenomenal success when he began his stud career for co-owner Three Chimneys Farm. His first crop, which hit the track in 2021, was led by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award champion Echo Zulu, along with another Grade 1 winner in Gunite. With those two leading four graded stakes winners overall, Gun Runner smashed the earnings record for a North American freshman sire, and also led the overall 2-year-old sire list.
Off that success, Gun Runner covered 256 mares in 2022, leading the continent, according to The Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred. The book was absolutely stellar in quality as well as quantity. The resulting foals are 2-year-olds of this year, and have Gun Runner, who finished second on the North American general sires list last year, set up for a good season.
The mares Gun Runner covered in 2022 included the dams of Triple Crown winners and Hall of Famers American Pharoah and Justify. He also covered Hall of Fame racemare and Grade 1 producer Beholder.
Other mares bred to Gun Runner in 2022 included Eclipse champions Groupie Doll, Take Charge Brandi, and Untapable; the dams of champions Cody’s Wish, Midnight Bisou, Monomoy Girl, and Vino Rosso; the dam of Preakness Stakes winner Early Voting; the dams of Grade 1 winners Alva Starr, Annapolis, Art Collector, Bodemeister, Catholic Boy, Collected, Cyberknife, Eskimo Kisses, Hootenanny, Shedaresthedevil, Society, and Volatile; and Grade 1 winners Acoma, Antonoe, Brilliant Cut, Cathryn Sophia, Chasing Yesterday, Coffee Clique, Dickinson, Dream Dancing, Dream Tree, Harmonize, Off the Tracks, Oleksandra, Pure Clan, Restless Rider, Sailor’s Valentine, Stopchargingmaria, Together, and War Flag.
The expectations for Gun Runner’s upcoming season have already been seen in the commercial arena. The stallion sired 10 yearlings sold for seven-figure prices in 2024. Overall, his yearling average was a career-high $522,361 from 83 sold.
Into Mischief
The only stallion to finish ahead of Gun Runner on the general sire list in 2024 was Into Mischief, who claimed his sixth consecutive title. He is the first to earn that many consecutive titles since the great Bold Ruler more than a half-century ago.
Into Mischief has consistently been a solid 2-year-old sire for Spendthrift Farm. He led that list for the first time in 2016, then again in 2018, 2019, and 2020. After finishing second in the category to Gun Runner’s record-setting season in 2021, he has since claimed the title three straight years.
Last year, he was powered by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and champion Citizen Bull – his second Eclipse champion juvenile, joining 2022 BC Juvenile Fillies winner Wonder Wheel.
Into Mischief’s stud fee was already a lofty $225,000 in 2021. It rose slightly to $250,000 in the season this year’s juveniles were conceived, and has remained there since, making him one of the most expensive sires in North America. It’s hard to imagine he could get much better, but some of his better books and crops could still be in the offing.
Into Mischief also bred a stellar book of mares in 2022, highlighted by Broodmare of the Year Dreaming of Julia. His book also included Horse of the Year Havre de Grace; additional Eclipse champions Abel Tasman, Lady Eli, Monomoy Girl, Stellar Wind, Unique Bella, and Vequist; and the dams of champions Good Magic and Swiss Skydiver.
Uncle Mo
Uncle Mo was an Eclipse Award champion 2-year-old himself, and immediately showed the ability to pass on that precocity. He was the leading freshman sire of 2015 – setting the earnings record Gun Runner eventually broke – with a first crop that included multiple Grade 1 winners, led by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and champion Nyquist, who went on to take the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Uncle Mo went on to become a perennial top 10 general sire.
The news of Uncle Mo’s untimely death last December at age 16 following a leg injury at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud, sent shockwaves through the bloodstock industry. Uncle Mo’s 2-year-olds of 2025 will his third-to-last crop, and supply-and-demand economics are likely to come into play to secure a dwindling number of young horses by the stallion, who has also emerged as a solid sire of sires and broodmare sire.
The book Uncle Mo covered in 2022 included Callingmissbrown, the dam of his Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal. He also was bred to champion Close Hatches, a multiple stakes producer, and to Rising Tornado, the dam of Close Hatches.
His book also included champion Judy the Beauty; the dam of champion Take Charge Brandi; Grade 1 winners Marketing Mix, Miss Temple City, Noted and Quoted, Sweet Loretta, and Switch; and the dams of Grade 1 winners Adare Manor, Bast, Dream Tree, Maxfield, Mucho Gusto, Outwork, Princess of Sylmar, Say the Word, and Tapwrit.
The busiest stallions
Following Gun Runner to round out the top 10 stallions on The Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred for 2022 were Yaupon (Spendthrift), Mendelssohn (Ashford Stud), Practical Joke (Ashford Stud), Not This Time (Taylor Made Farm), Charlatan (Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm), Rock Your World (Spendthrift), Mo Town (Ashford Stud), Tiz the Law (Ashford Stud), and Omaha Beach (Spendthrift).
Not This Time jumped up the list in a significant manner, as his 2022 book was 40 percent larger than his 2021 book. The stallion’s third crop raced in 2022, and he is expected to still be on the upswing. With his fee rising to $175,000 for 2025, his best-bred crops are still in the pipeline.
Tiz the Law also had a significant increase that bucks some trends. Usually, well-regarded young stallions breed a large book their first year and then have something of a decline until their crops prove themselves on the track.
Tiz the Law’s book jumped 37 percent from his first year in 2021 to his second year in 2022, however. That suggests that his first foals were very well liked. That first crop placed him a close third in a competitive 2024 freshman sire race, and he is poised for success with his second crop.
Yaupon, Charlatan, and Rock Your World were all first-year stallions in 2022. Yaupon and Charlatan, in particular, garnered strong first books and had a strong return on their investments during the yearling sale season, which suggests much is expected of their first 2-year-olds.
Yaupon, by Uncle Mo, had a first book that included Eclipse champion and prominent broodmare Folklore; Canadian classic winner and champion Holy Helena; and Grade 1 winners Belle Gallantey, Downthedustyroad, and Got Stormy. He averaged $165,349 from his 129 yearlings sold last year, more than 5.5 times his introductory fee of $30,000.
Charlatan was bred by Stonestreet Farm, which kept a piece of him in a large racing partnership, and he now stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale. The support of both those outfits’ major broodmare bands was evidenced with his well-bred yearlings who drew high prices last year. With three seven-figure yearlings to lead his class, he averaged $248,627 for 106 yearlings sold at public auction last year, more than 4.9 times his advertised fee of $50,000.
Other sales leaders
Fifteen different stallions were represented by seven-figure horses across the North American yearling sales last year. Some of the usual suspects were represented – Gun Runner led the way with 10, while Into Mischief sired seven of the high-ticket horses.
Curlin (Hill ‘n’ Dale) sired six seven-figure horses, including the most expensive yearling in North America last year, a colt out of Grade 1 winner Cavorting, dam of Grade 1 winner Clairiere. The still-unnamed colt was purchased for $5 million by Whisper Hill Farm at the Keeneland September yearling sale, helping Curlin lead that sale by average price. Gun Runner led in gross sales.
The aforementioned Charlatan’s three seven-figure yearlings from his first crop led his class. Maxfield (Darley), who has also had strong returns on his stud fee, sired two million-dollar horses at Keeneland September.
Also represented with top sales were Not This Time with four seven-figure yearlings; Constitution (WinStar Farm), Nyquist (Darley), and Tapit (Gainesway) with three each; Justify (Ashford Stud) with two; and American Pharoah (Ashford Stud), Ghostzapper (formerly Hill ‘n’ Dale/currently Adena Springs), Medaglia d’Oro (Darley), Quality Road (Lane’s End Farm), and Uncle Mo with one each.