Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:35 p.m. (ET)
Likely favorite Yo Banana Boy (#3) already has plenty of experience at this level and arguably ran the best race last time when hanging on for second behind the classy National Identity after chasing a fast pace. He also ran well prior to that when put in tight quarters attempting to rally up the rail, again settling for second behind a winner with stakes credentials. Yo Banana Boy has finished second in three of his last four attempts at this level, suggesting that he isn't the most reliable win candidate, but he has been pretty consistent as of late. He's coming in off two of the best performances of his career, both of which came since adding Lasix. There is plenty of speed drawn outside of him, and he's shown much better willingness to rate and finish than he had earlier in his career. I view him as a fairly likely winner.
The most talented of the speeds is What's Up Bro (#4), but he lacks the consistency of his main rival. He faded badly after failing to make the lead two back at Saratoga, and last time was mildly disappointing, unable to sustain the pace that Yo Banana Boy was stalking. Now he's drawn inside of pace rivals like Factually Correct (#6) and Tall Paul (#7), which could complicate his task. That latter runner switches back into the barn of John Terranova while dropping in class out of a tougher spot in California. He may move forward second off a layoff, but he figures to be overbet with Flavien Prat getting aboard.
With all the speed in here, you have to consider the lone closer, Braciole (#5), who could potentially win this race if the pace completely collapses, but he's hardly the most talented horse in this field. I'll use him underneath.