Having failed in my quest to gain the open Kentucky Derby mount on Commandment – I concede that Luis Saez is a stronger finisher than I am – it is back to touting Saturday stakes races. Surprisingly limited menu this week. We’re keeping it to two venues.
Apple Blossom
Zenyatta won two Apple Blossoms. So did the great Argentine import Paseana, who wasn’t as good as the other Ron McAnally-trained, Argentina-bred Apple Blossom winner, Bayakoa. Azeri landed three in a row, 2002-04.
Azeri’s winning Beyer Speed Figures: 105, 110, and 112. Paseana ran a 110 and a 114.
My, how things have changed.
Nitrogen, surely favored Saturday, tops out at a 97, earned winning the Bayakoa in her Feb. 7 seasonal debut. Perhaps even that was too much: At odds of 3-10, she regressed to a 91 finishing third March 7 in the Azeri. Obviously, not all wet tracks are created equal, but since Nitrogen won her other wet-track start by 17 lengths, it’s difficult pinning all the blame on a sloppy Oaklawn strip.
Nitrogen can bounce back – but bounce back to what? Were her best 2025 performances, albeit as a 3-year-old, anything spectacular?
Majestic Oops got a good stalking trip, handled the off going, and won the Azeri. This 6-year-old back in 2023 and 2024 ran in four $12,500 conditioned claiming races and lost all of them. Majestic Oops’s form began turning around after a 2024 barn change took her to Century Mile, in Nisku, Alberta, Canada.
I don’t believe Majestic Oops wins again, and I like the horse closing fast on her for second in the Azeri, Regaled.
Who else did Regaled close fast on? Nitrogen, in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She finished a half-length behind her, coming from 11th, the only horse making up ground on a speed-biased track.
Regaled might have struggled with slop last out; took her forever to get going. She really started charging after a midstretch dive inside, which aligns with post-Azeri workout video. Regaled went all right working outside a partner March 29 but looked much better – quite good – placed inside the same horse April 6.
Regaled’s modest Falls City in late November was a classic case of “one race too many.” Her Azeri served as an Apple Blossom prep. Regaled won’t hit 100 on the Beyer scale, but she can win the Apple Blossom.
Jenny Wiley
Lush Lips could be favored over Segesta, but I like her even at the 5-2 morning line.
We shall see, but Lush Lips this year could turn into the best female horse in turf races between a mile and 1 1/8 miles.
I tabbed Lush Lips to beat Nitrogen 13 months ago in the Florida Oaks, and she nearly got the job done. Nitrogen topped the 3-year-old turf division the first half of last year, and Lush Lips at the time was nowhere near the horse she has become.
And Lush Lips has come a long way, improving not just her race capability, but her approach. She’s very responsive to the rider, has gone from winning races on the front end to a horse who can be held off the lead to deliver a vicious slingshot move. She likes Keeneland, obviously. As good as she looked in the Honey Fox, subsequent work video supports the trainer’s belief that she improves Saturday. If she does, she wins.
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Count Fleet Sprint Handicap
Roll On Big Joe has evolved into a consistently tough sprinter, but there is only one Count Fleet horse with true upside on the day. That’s Dreaminblue, who gets six pounds from Roll On Big Joe and can pull an upset.
Roll On Big Joe does have a touch of rateability, but only a touch. He’ll be very close to what looks on paper like a hot pace. Dreaminblue has an ideal draw on the far outside to get the trip that can win him the Count Fleet, a clean stalking run into fast fractions.
Go back 14 1/2 months and you’ll find Dreaminblue notching a snazzy Oaklawn maiden win over this six-furlong distance. His Churchill comeback run Oct. 30 propelled him into connections’ winter goal, namely Oaklawn, and a very capable trainer has freshened Dreaminblue since his second win of the meet, pointing toward this spot. The one interim workout video won’t blow your doors off, but Dreaminblue looks about as ready as he can be for this step up in class.
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