Who will be the shorter Derby prep price? Sovereignty, the two-time graded route stakes winner who is set to improve in his second start after a layoff, or Cornucopian, a second-time starter trying a route? I’ll say Cornucopian, and that Sovereignty is the more likely Saturday winner.
Arkansas Derby
I really like Cornucopian, who has superstar potential, and it was not for nothing trainer Bob Baffert sent him to Oaklawn to debut. Gotta think even on Feb. 23 Baffert had a return trip to Arkansas in mind. Why not shoot for the stars with this kind of talent?
Cornucopian proved fastest of 10 through a 21.86-second opening quarter in his debut. That wasn’t nearly the most impressive part of his race. Let out a notch in upper stretch by Irad Ortiz Jr. – who interestingly cedes the mount to John Velazquez – Cornucopian fired up the jets and went his fifth furlong in 11.49 seconds, his final quarter in 23.62. That’s rare stuff for any maiden dirt horse, much less one who had shown blazing speed. Cornucopian has returned with strong breezes, though his besting of highly rated Barnes on March 17 lost some luster when Barnes came back five days later to get outworked by Rodriguez, a lesser if talented horse.
Cornucopian’s dam ran in turf routes, and dirt stamina flows throughout his female line. He could sit a good trip Saturday just off Speed King’s flank, or he could wind up on the lead. Either way, no surprise if Cornucopian runs his way into serious Derby contention.
All that said, he still has to, you know, go out there and do it. One miscue at the break and Cornucopian finds himself in unfamiliar territory. If he’s too keen and gets hooked on a hot pace, he won’t last nine furlongs. And with his big figure and big-time connections, the win odds will come up miniscule. Coal Battle’s quick-twitch middle move won’t get the job done at this longer distance, which I don’t think suits him, and both he and likely second choice Sandman look light on upside. I’m siding with the maiden, Publisher.
You might have noticed Publisher’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, sent Tiztastic out to win the Louisiana Derby last weekend, and that Publisher with a tougher trip beat Tiztastic in the Rebel. And as with Tiztastic, Asmussen has Publisher poised for a timely peak.
His second to Virginia Derby winner American Promise in late December marked a breakthrough, and you can draw a line through his impossible-trip Southwest. In the Rebel, Publisher rocked back at the start and got squeezed a bit, which put him much too far off the pace on a speed-favoring surface. His trip thereafter was far from clean, and he showed grit and maturity holding his position through a claustrophobic midstretch spot before finishing with interest.
Going without blinkers, Publisher outworked Tiztastic before the Rebel, and in blinkers, which he wears in a race for the first time, he outworked older stakes horse Dimatic in his major Arkansas Derby drill.
The Baffert second-timer can be had by the Asmussen six-start maiden.
American Pharoah
Bishops Bay had a big work March 22 at Fair Grounds (visually, as well as on the clock) and looks well meant here, but considering his forward running style, post 1 really hurts him. Bishops Bay won’t clear Maycocks Bay, with I’m McDreamy – if he doesn’t go in the Oaklawn Mile – turning up the heat.
With deeper digging, Bishops Bay’s Brad Cox-trained stablemate Liberal Arts looks like the value. Trouble at the break took Liberal Arts out of his stalking game in the slow-paced Fifth Season; expect him to race closer Saturday. Recent workout video shows Liberal Arts breezing solo at Fair Grounds on March 22. He picked it up nicely to the wire and flew around the clubhouse turn galloping out. He’ll run down the speed in the American Pharoah.
Pan American
This race lacks any semblance of true pace and will turn really messy, and messy, paceless races can get superior horses like Far Bridge beat. Granted, Far Bridge has shown an affinity for Gulfstream and clearly is the “best horse,” but I can see him losing.
Better Bet obviously was only prepping for this 1 1/2-mile contest in his 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream comeback. His best 2024 performances nearly put him in the mix, and Better Bet can do . . . better. His running style – wait at the back, swoop with one big run – is perfect for avoiding the muddled pack and sneaking into an upset win.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.