Saturday offers a Breeders’ Cup Classic preview, albeit involving two unplayable races some 2,800 miles apart.
At Saratoga, Sovereignty races for the first time since the Belmont. Baeza looks like he’s blooming, and the Jim Dandy, occupying an intermediate space on Sovereignty’s agenda, looms a “trap” race. However, I believe Sovereignty will end his career considered a great horse, and a great won’t lose this Jim Dandy.
At Del Mar, Nysos goes back to two turns in the San Diego. This horse . . . incredible. He breezes solo, absolutely attentive to his rider at every moment, and goes better in his works than most horses can race. Watch out, world.
Bing Crosby
Realizing that Crazy Mason galloped out in front after finishing a soundly beaten third in the 6 1/2-furlong True North, and that his best win, in the Grade 2 Carter, came over seven furlongs, I like this horse cutting back to six furlongs in the Bing Crosby.
Were the race lacking pace, that would be a deal-breaker for a pace-dependent horse like Crazy Mason, but the Bing Crosby has wave upon wave of speed. And none of the pace players are nearly as talented as the one-two finishers, Book’em Danno and Mullikin, from the True North, an under-graded Grade 3 meaningfully stronger than this Grade 1.
A 4-year-old with 14 starts, Crazy Mason still has upside since he only found his niche as a one-run closing sprinter a few races ago. It’s quite a run he packs: Crazy Mason covered his last 2 1/2 furlongs in the True North in 28.19 seconds, more like a finishing split from a good turf race than one recorded on a sloppy, sealed dirt surface. Sadly, there is no public workout video from any of the post-True North breezes, but the pattern looks strong and, for what it’s worth, the half-mile July 19 was fastest among 98 that morning.
Hejazi holds appeal as a value-add to horses more likely to win. Dr. Venkman did have a rotten trip in the Kelly’s Landing. World Record is very, very fast, but perhaps not much faster than a couple of others.
Crazy Mason storming down the center of the Del Mar track and passing them all at 7-2? Not crazy at all.
Ontario Colleen
I came to bury Boca Queen, not praise her. The process didn’t go as planned.
Once-started, with a flashy-looking running line in a seven-furlong maiden, now stepping up to a graded turf route, Boca Queen looked like a horse to poke holes in at a relatively short price.
I don’t think there was anything illegitimate about her debut score, and there’s good reason to believe she’ll perform even better over this longer trip.
Granted, the race she won did to some extent fall apart, but after getting first run on the deeper closers, Boca Queen comfortably held them all at bay and widened her margin during the gallop-out. The longer distance should suit her – and why wouldn’t it? Boca Queen’s by Kingman, whose progeny hit hardest between one mile and 1 1/4 miles, and out of Bocca Baciata, Group 1-placed over 1 1/4 miles. She also is the dam of Foniska, whose best race came at that same distance.
Repole Stable paid about $423,000 for the filly at the Goffs Orby sale of 2023, and Boca Queen didn’t post a published workout until autumn of her 2-year-old season. She’s been on a steady pattern since April and is not a vulnerable shorter price in the Ontario Colleen but an attractive one.
Reigh Count
Patriot Spirit beat Inveigled in the Knicks Go this past May at Churchill Downs, but that was one of several recent races that failed to show Inveigled at his best. Look for Inveigled to handle Patriot Spirit, Worcester, and the five others, hopefully as third choice in the seven-furlong Reigh Count.
Since beating the good horse Knightbridge going a one-turn mile Feb. 15 at Gulfstream – a performance that would get the job done here – Inveigled suffered through a bad trip (and might have bounced) in the Army Mule; wound up contesting a hot pace in the Knicks Go despite being a natural stalking type in one-turn races; and, finally, losing a lot of ground on both turns while tracking a false pace June 21 at Laurel in a two-turn allowance.
Inveigled can get two turns in a pinch but runs best in longer one-turn races like this. He figures to pull a favorable, ground-saving stalking trip behind a fair pace, and would offer value even, say, at 4-1.
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