Let’s briefly talk about weight assignments in graded stakes races – namely, that there should be none beyond simple weight-for-age. Why must the American jurisdiction walk out of step with the rest of the world and apply allowance conditions to races like the Grade 1 Diana, where, for no good reason, Excellent Truth gets four pounds from the others? I’ll wait for an answer . . .
Diana
Beach Bomb, Gimme a Nother, Kathynmarissa, and Soprano: At the risk of being the “yeah, but who’d she beat?” guy, those are the second-place finishers behind She Feels Pretty during her four-race win streak. Partly because she’s ultra-talented and tactically versatile, She Feels Pretty got favorable trips in all those wins. The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup last October marks the only truly superstar showing from a filly who, in the Diana win pool, will be treated like a superstar.
As wonderful as She Feels Pretty has been since last fall, the Diana feels like the time to beat her. I can’t see anything good coming of her rail draw, and for all her strengths, She Feels Pretty lacks the super quick-twitch acceleration and handiness to get out of tight, tricky spots.
I can see why they’d try this race with Lady Claypoole but absolutely cannot see her winning, yet at their respective odds I’d rather play her than Be Your Best. Even as lone speed, Be Your Best will not stave off the horses running at her Saturday.
Is Dynamic Pricing simply far stronger at 4 than 3? Maybe? Possibly? More likely: This filly handles softer surfaces better than most. Her lone win last year, in the Regret, came over a course with plenty of give. Her last four furlongs in the one-mile Just a Game – 48.96 seconds. That’s a course that saps brilliance from horses and allows a fundamentally lesser foe to prevail.
Choisya, the Diana’s best value, almost got the call. Regardless of whether Excellent Truth beats her in the Jenny Wiley without Choisya fouling her (and getting away with it), there wasn’t much between those two. Choisya went to Dubai and came to America because she likes flat courses and firm going, so just draw a line through her soft-ground Just a Game. Recent workout video really caught my eye, and Choisya’s win over Cinderella’s Dream in the Balanchine at Meydan impresses – visually and fractionally – even on fourth or fifth viewing.
But while Choisya gets first run on Be Your Best and leads at the eighth pole, Excellent Truth will wear her down. Choisya slots in more as a natural miler, but 1 1/8 miles hits Excellent Truth’s sweet spot, and I think we’ve yet to see her very best this year. While She Feels Pretty tries to find room, Excellent Truth will leave cover in upper stretch for a clear run. She’ll give Choisya more than she can handle and give Chad Brown his 10th Diana in the last 11 years.
My Dear
Covering Kentucky, it’s easy to get spoiled by the wide availability of workout video. How, exactly (workout reports aside), do we assess a first-time starter we’ve never seen? How did any bettor ever?
I wanted to like first-timer Valley of Kings in the Victoria, but in the absence of work video, that’s tough. Not that there’s a surfeit of video in the My Dear, but we at least got a look at first-timer Abdul, and she’s the play, though potentially at a depressed price.
You might not glean much watching Abdul’s breezes at Churchill. She was asked for virtually nothing in them. Yet that’s part of the appeal. My take is that Churchill just was a stop on the way to Woodbine, and that this race always has been the goal. And even working slowly, Abdul worked like a physically advanced filly who can run. I’ll guess that’s the case.
Miss Disco
Even loose on the lead, Mila Candy looks like a vulnerable favorite over a seven-furlong trip possibly beyond her best. The morning line has Conquerthosewecan a shorter price than her stablemate Grayson’s Girl, and I hope that’s the case, because Grayson’s Girl is the better chance.
Grayson’s Girl beats Conquerthosewecan last out with a better trip and quickly galloped out in front. She’s going to love seven furlongs. Her defeat two back came with plenty of trouble, her win three back with the greatest of ease, and even something like 7-2 would be acceptable.
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