Between the Del Mar turf and the Churchill dirt, plenty of meat on this Saturday’s leftover turkey bone.
This is the best one of these late November all-juvenile cards at Churchill that I can remember. Stuck with the two sprint stakes on the program, but the Kentucky Jockey Club – Further Ado versus Soldier N Diplomat versus Cherokee Nation – should be fun. Even with heavy favorite Explora out, the Golden Rod includes fillies with serious potential, especially Bella Ballerina and Atropa.
Ed Brown
I like Boyd in the Ed Brown. Rather, I like that Boyd is in the Ed Brown. He’s a flashy debut winner with a flashy number for a flashy trainer, a colt who presumably will take a vast amount of win betting.
Even breezing at the May sale where he brought more than $1 million, Boyd looked more like an early-season 3-year-old than a late spring 2-year-old. There’s plenty to him, and he went through the fast work that led to the home-run pinhook with ease. Funny thing about that one-furlong breeze – in many of his works and in his debut, Boyd, to me, did about a furlong’s worth of truly strong work. The most recent breeze video impressed somewhat more, but no world-beaters chased him home in his lone start, and trainer Bob Baffert with 2-year-old dirt stakes runners for owner Amr Zedan is, for what it’s worth, 3 for 17.
No evidence yet presented suggests the big number produced in race 2 on Oct. 4 at Keeneland misses the mark. Victorious Local Knowledge hasn’t run back, but fourth-place Commandment and sixth-place Mesquite came right back with good wins. So did runner-up Gallivant, who, impressively, went from leading that maiden to coming from last of four easily winning the Bowman Mill (a lesser contest than the maiden race!) three weeks later. Don’t much like Gallivant’s rail draw but did like his Nov. 21 breeze.
Nonetheless, Stradale’s the one. Other than the fact he lost, there was nothing at all wrong with Stradale’s debut, his only start over six furlongs. And Talkin, who nipped Stradale going seven furlongs second out, came back with a good second in the Champagne. Stradale’s Champagne came with early trouble and a realization this colt might not want a mile – at least right now. Cut back to six furlongs facing solid maidens at Churchill, Stradale went “whoosh,” getting his fifth furlong in a rocking 11.45 seconds and coming home under a hand ride in 12.05. Encouraging breeze video since that overdue win, and Stradale will improve again Saturday.
Seabiscuit
The expression “on my bingo card” for some reason has caught fire the last several months. As in, “I didn’t have taking Astronomer to win the Seabiscuit on my bingo card.”
Astronomer comes to this start on a 14-race losing streak dating to August 2023. He ran well in a few one-mile races, but his top performance the last two calendar years might have come in last year’s Seabiscuit.
No coincidence. While it might seem like splitting hairs, the difference between one mile and Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile trip is a meaningful difference for Astronomer. Watch how he performs two back going one mile at Del Mar: After extricating himself from upper-stretch trouble, Astronomer (who didn’t appear to love rallying inside) could not quite find that quick-twitch acceleration to run down the pacesetting winner. But where 8 1/2 furlongs stretches shorter prices here like Almendares and Quirat, it gives Astronomer a better chance to unwind.
Dearly wish workout video existed for those Nov. 8 and Nov. 15 drills, but all we know from the outside is the horse worked fast. The Seabiscuit pace also could come up fast, which helps, and maybe for the first time in a long time, Astronomers is the star of the show.
Fern Creek
Video of her dirt workouts doesn’t dazzle, but if Mackinac proves capable of producing her dirt form on turf, she’s an overlaid contender in the Fern Creek. Her dam was a very fast dirt sprinter, and sire Twirling Candy probably rates higher with turf runners but gets plenty of very good horses for the main track.
Mackinac with a better trip could have won her sprint debut at Saratoga, and I found her Kentucky Downs performance quite eye-catching. Put down that last-start flop to the filly’s inability to handle two-turn racing. And if she handles dirt, Mackinac can win the Fern Creek.
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