There’s too much to say about these races to meander through a preamble. Let’s get to it.
Fountain of Youth
Trainer Ian Wilkes this week said he believed rising 3-year-old Burnham Square would benefit from – gasp! – a regular monthly racing schedule this winter and spring.
Mr. Wilkes! Such things are not done!
So, instead of passing the Fountain of Youth and awaiting the Florida Derby after winning the Holy Bull, Burnham Square swings right back into action. He has won two straight since Wilkes equipped him with blinkers and now stands a great chance of making it three in a row – at an appealing price.
River Thames could wind up favored. Sure hope so.
Burnham Square had an eventful trip in his debut; took a lot of dirt and passed a bunch of horses second time out; then came willingly through a narrow opening and finished full of run in his two-back maiden victory. In the Holy Bull, he quickly was going away from talented runner-up Tappan Street after overcoming a challenging trip.
River Thames, his pedigree suited to one mile and shorter, got a cozy outside pressing trip winning his debut, and while he stuck to the inside second time out, River Thames found room without having to work or wait for it and pulled another great trip. No workout video, but watching the colt race, he does not evince power and glory.
Sovereignty impressively rallied from last into a moderate pace easily winning the Oct. 27 Street Sense. Fractional times notwithstanding, closers dominated that race, and a case can be made Churchill’s main track favored outside paths throughout the card.
Sovereignty didn’t work back until Dec. 24. His pattern then goes Jan. 15, Jan. 31, Feb. 7, Feb. 15, and Feb. 23 – suggesting a horse prepping Saturday for the Florida Derby. Workout video from Feb. 15 suggests Sovereignty got thumped by someone named Chillax.
Wilkes didn’t bother fitting Burnham Square in blinkers for his Feb. 22 breeze, though he did so going into the Holy Bull. The horse is gaining confidence in himself. The trainer is gaining confidence in the horse. I’m confident Burnham Square wins.
Kilroe Mile
The plan was to make this an all 3-year-old Weekend GamePlan, but Barnes offers negative hype-induced value in the San Felipe yet probably isn’t losing. Journalism’s big chance comes in the Santa Anita Derby.
While Locked looks like a Big Cap lock, I think “they” think the Kilroe Mile killer is Mi Hermano Ramon. ¡Creo que no! El Potente is the powerful choice.
Mi Hermano Ramon is a 5-year-old, but it’s 6-year-old El Potente on the rise. Mi Hermano Ramon peaked two and three starts ago. El Potente hit a peak last time and will run back to or exceed that performance Saturday.
While El Potente debuted during October 2021, his career only really took off with a move back to turf in January 2023. His form leapt forward and, through a couple layoffs, has sustained and improved.
Finally, apparently, sound, El Potente has gotten onto a regular racing pattern. He’s benefited from it, and jockey Hector Berrios figured out that a horse who used to lead runs best with a target. Air Force Red gave him one last time and does so again Saturday.
Bred to mature late, El Potente has that strong kick at the top of the homestretch that makes a talented grass-route horse with tactical speed nearly impossible to catch. Recent workout video suggests El Potente comes to the Kilroe as potent as ever. Mi Hermano Ramon won’t get to him.
Gotham
Three superficial bits of misleading information help the price on a quietly serious Gotham player named Garamond.
The on-paper running line from his lone start suggests an uneventful trip. Incorrect. Garamond got into several tight spots, had to wait to make his move, and received a world of experience.
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The nature of his trip tamped down the final time, meaning the 71 Beyer Speed Figure underrates Garamond.
Trainer Chad Brown is 2 for 18 the last five years with 3-year-olds going from a debut win into a dirt stakes. Dig deeper and you’ll find most horses in the sample raced competitively and moved forward, usually considerably, on the Beyer scale.
Horses that debuted in Florida, like Garamond, generally proved more potent than those who wintered in New York. And Garamond, while headstrong early in his works – good ones – eventually settles, hinting he can rate off what should be a fast, contested Gotham pace.
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