Derby prep season hits full swing this weekend. Couldn’t make much of the Gotham card in New York, so the focus turns to Florida, a bit of New Orleans lagniappe thrown in.
Fountain of Youth
Some folks have published stats, discouraging ones, regarding trainer Bill Mott’s strike rate with second-time starters in stakes – horses like Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth.
Daily Racing Form Formulator stats only go back five years. The sample is small, so I looked at the actual horses, not just numbers.
Chief Wallabee isn’t like any horse Mott has run under circumstances like Saturday’s – at least not in a good long while.
The young second-timers in stakes mainly were Saratoga 2-year-olds, and across the board, 3-year-olds superficially similar to Chief Wallabee either were inherently too slow or in the wrong kind of race.
Take Empirestrikesfast, who won his debut at Gulfstream on March 12, 2023, with a 92 Beyer and ran back – ineffectively – in the Lexington at Keeneland. Empirestrikesfast was 23-1 first out, and that race’s visual can’t compare with Chief Wallabee’s debut. Frankie Dettori rode Empirestrikesfast in the Lexington. The six horses Dettori has ridden for Mott went 0-0-1.
There’s the infamous Hidden Scroll, who debuted Jan. 19, 2019, at Gulfstream, winning by a pole with a 104 Beyer, and then finished a fading fourth in his next start as the Fountain of Youth favorite. The debut win, a sloppy-track one-turn mile, clearly was a red herring. Hidden Scroll couldn’t route and turned out not to be a graded stakes horse.
I hadn’t watched Chief Wallabee’s race until this week, and wasn’t expecting to be so impressed. The colt has rateable speed that will land him a good trip. His excellent final furlong preceded an equally strong gallop-out; Chief Wallabee will improve routing. Mott has worked him with salty older horses like Bendoog, and Chief Wallabee works like a good horse.
Mott this week called the quick maiden-to-stakes move a “rush job.” I can see why a trainer who loathes rushing horses in the slightest would feel that way. I cannot see Mott running if he didn’t have some faith that the colt – the only horse he has ever trained for these owners – was ready and that he belonged.
I’ll happily admit my skepticism regarding Napoleon Solo was misguided if he outruns my expectations.
Commandment is going to be the race’s big negative value. I actually like him, and he has done some good stuff, but the Mucho Macho Man came up so soft. The Puma, who Chief Wallabee comfortably bested, is far better than any of those Mucho Macho men.
Rush job? Bad stats? I’ll take my chances.
The Very One
It has been a very long time since Just Basking ran a race that suggests she could capture the Grade 3 The Very One. Hopefully, the betting public has forgotten her.
Sure, the 2024 Alabama came up relatively light for a Grade 1, but Just Basking ran a winning race there, losing a lot of momentum when forced some 10 paths from the fence turning for home. Gaining at the finish, she clearly stayed that 1 1/4 miles.
That’s in stark contrast to her two most successful siblings, Kilwin and One Timer, both sprinters, and both eminently capable on turf. Just Basking has made but one grass start, when trainer Ian Wilkes sent her to Fair Grounds about 11 months ago specifically to run on turf. She didn’t fire at all, but also didn’t race the rest of the year.
Watching Just Basking breeze on turf, she looks like . . . a turf horse. And watching Just Basking’s very useful comeback prep Jan. 15, she looks ready for The Very One.
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Black Gold
McCready, given his trip, had no business winning a Delaware turf-route maiden in his debut, a race that came up with a solid field for the venue.
And the short comment trouble line doesn’t tell the tale of his Fair Grounds first-level allowance start Jan. 22.
McCready raced in tight quarters nearly the entire trip, and when finally allowed to stride clear in midstretch, he did so with aplomb, punctuating a strong finish with a very good gallop-out.
He also displayed the kind of physical development after a three-month break that one would hope to see in an early 3-year-old. He might not be as high as the 8-1 on the morning line, but McCready should be playable in the Black Gold.
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