First Saturday in February. Let’s see – three months, evidently, to the first Saturday in May, Derby Day. Seems like a good time, despite short fields, to focus this week on 3-year-old stakes.
Holy Bull
A colt named Vicar in 1999 finished fifth as the 6-5 favorite in the Holy Bull. Vicar, who’d go on to win the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, was trained by Carl Nafzger, whose lead assistant was Ian Wilkes. On Saturday at Gulfstream, Wilkes can do with a longer-priced starter, Burnham Square, what his boss and mentor didn’t a quarter century ago and win the Holy Bull.
Vicar came to this race in a different place than Burnham Square, having won his first two starts and finished second in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Returning from a freshening, Nafzger used the Holy Bull as a step toward Vicar’s peak.
Burnham Square, like Vicar, debuted at Keeneland, but unlike his predecessor, lost first time out while racing for a claiming tag, albeit $150,000. This is no maiden-claimer.
Shuffled back early going sprint to route second out, Burnham Square came alive on the far turn at Churchill, reaching contention in midstretch but only reaching peak stride the final half-furlong, just missing, galloping out with flames flying from his hooves.
After that revelatory three furlongs, another surprise, this time at Gulfstream. With blinkers added, Burnham Square showed vastly improved gate speed. He raced poised and in the bridle from the jump, made an early inside move to assume command, and, despite still showing greenness in the stretch run, won by a pole, again galloping out strongly.
Burnham Square might wind up second choice behind Ferocious but could be third choice behind Tappan Street, even fourth choice behind Guns Loaded.
Guns Loaded, not for me. Ferocious remains a tough read; blinkers could really help a clearly talented colt that I can’t trust at the price. Tappan Street, solid if unspectacular in his lone start, outworked highly regarded Patch Adams on Jan. 19, but Patch Adams came back with a disappointing Southwest Stakes showing.
Burnham Square has breezed three times since his breakout win. Wilkes expects improvement again, as do I.
Robert B. Lewis
Anyone paying heed to workout video should have seen that Citizen Bull represented Bob Baffert’s best chance to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He did, going wire to wire at a silly 16-1, but offers a tiny fraction of that price making his 3-year-old bow Saturday. Citizen Bull, paired with capable older horses, has continued breezing well, though perhaps a tick off his best Jan. 25 inside Pilot Commander.
Rodriguez lit up the speed figure world posting a 100 Beyer in a front-running, sprint-to-route, second-out maiden victory. He’s made much differently, longer and lankier, than the bulldog Citizen Bull, but the two have deployed the same front-running tactics and are likely to do so again. Add Clock Tower’s speed to the mix and the Lewis pace could turn frenzied.
Citizen Bull stands the best chance of holding up through it, but I’ll try Baffert’s supposed “C” Team.
There are a couple interesting things about Madaket Road, an obviously talented colt sitting on a peak. He debuted without blinkers, somewhat uncommon for Baffert, and has been working solo, also relatively unusual for a talented Baffert colt. Those works catch the eye.
Madaket Road picks up sweetly when given his cue, hits the wire hard, and when asked, gallops out extremely well. There’s some sprint in his family, but this looks like a route horse, one with positional pace and a good temperament. Frankie Dettori badly wants a live Derby mount. Perhaps, quietly, he has found one.
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Withers
The sprint-route divide shown in Bucchero’s offspring is stark: Well above average with sprinters, he’s well below with routers. Still, look for the Bucchero colt Global Steve to race competitively going nine furlongs after a pair of seven-furlong victories to start his career.
It would be nice if Global Steve didn’t carry his head so high in the homestretch, but last out, easily winning a minor Parx stakes, he got lost and raced greenly after taking a big upper-stretch lead. Global Steve responded favorably to an inside trip behind horses in any easy debut score, and on the clock, at least, came back with a strong work for the Withers.
The shorter prices – Mo Quality, Captain Cook, Omaha Omaha – look shaky, and Global Steve should pull a favorable stalking trip at a fair price.
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