The race of the day comes at Los Alamitos, where some hold the opinion that long layoff comebacker Sharp Azteca can give Kopion a run for her money. Sorry – no. In fact, a large number of Saturday stakes yielded a small number of appealing wagering opportunities.
Indiana Derby
Instant Replay gets the call in the Indiana Derby (Chunk of Gold will be scratched) partly because I’m skeptical of his main rivals. Favored on the morning line, Coal Battle won’t be the favorite, but I don’t want him at any price. Perhaps the plucky colt proves immune to the rigors of an exceedingly demanding schedule. I doubt it. He’s making his 11th start in 11 months, and after a meek Derby showing, was thrown back into action five weeks later in the Matt Winn, where he drew alongside East Avenue at the furlong grounds and ran out of gas. Subsequent workout video does not look great.
Publisher, the $400,000-earning maiden, has looked much better than Coal Battle while working with Magnitude, but I don’t care for his rail draw and suspect he needs another half-furlong (1 1/8 miles) for his best. Tip Top Thomas’s connections ship from New York hoping – praying? – to find a graded stakes that fits him. Even without Master Controller pushing him on the pace, I have doubts.
Give me Big Truzz at his 9-2 morning-line odds and I’d take him, but no surprise if this colt winds up favored or close to it. I came into this liking Big Truzz more than I do after reviewing his last two races. Did wet tracks hurt him? Possibly. Tough trip in the Woody Stephens? Definitely. Big Truzz has size, scope, and – superficially – a route pedigree. I’m not convinced he’s a route horse.
Instant Replay’s more than a default selection. This colt got great setups pace-wise in his Fair Grounds allowance win and in the Louisiana Derby but closed into slow splits winning the Bath House Row.
At Lone Star last out he looked handier and more engaged during the early and middle stages. He also hit the front sooner than in his other wins and appeared to pull himself up.
This is no Travers horse, but Instant Replay just might creep into a playable price Saturday.
Kelso
Went back over the replay of race 9 on May 25 at Churchill mainly to see how Mountain Bear performed in a comeback start. He did fine, losing ground both turns, finishing with interest. But it was the winner, Nantasket Bay, who really caught the eye.
Nantasket Bay is a 6-year-old with 23 starts, and that last race, for all its merit, generally will be viewed as a one-off, not sustainable. That’s exactly what will produce value Saturday.
Not gonna lie, research was required determining exactly who trainer Lauren Robson is. She’s from England, has a strong résumé as an exercise rider for excellent trainers, including the late, great Jonathan Sheppard. Robson, based mainly in Florida, trains a small string and still gets on her own horses, and from the look of two recent workout videos at Keeneland, she’s an excellent rider.
Nantasket Bay’s a turf horse and works like one on dirt, but I loved the way he went working under Robson in those two drills. Both came after his Churchill breakout race ended with a 23.01 final quarter-mile, and both revealed a horse brimming with energy and confidence. Robson’s only trained this horse since January. He’s won three of four, and is getting faster with every victory. This Kelso’s no barn burner. Nantasket Bay might do it again.
:: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports
Hendrie
Run for the Hills had a year-plus layoff from February 2022 to March 2023 and didn’t hit her peak until summer of her 5-year-old season in 2024. Her four runs last year between May and July, before Run for the Hills went over the top, showed a mare entirely capable of winning a race like this.
No offense, but Run for the Hills in her Keeneland comeback race looked, if not outright fat, then heavy. She also pulled a lousy, ground-losing trip, and showed last out at Churchill she’s still interested in racing. The Hendrie lacks pace, and Run for the Hills, here and there, has raced effectively on or near the lead.
Why is Run for the Hills, trained by Mark Casse for owner Gary Barber, back racing at age 6? Connections are looking for her first stakes win. Here it comes in the Hendrie.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.