A dark weekend on the West Coast, quiet on the East Coast, most eyes on Keeneland and Oaklawn this Saturday.
Jenny Wiley
A fascinating race, with a French import, a Dubai shipper, an England shipper, the one-two finishers from the most important female turf race so far this year in America, and a couple of talented 4-year-olds. (Spoiler alert: The play is none of those.)
Excellent Truth could drop lower than her 5-2 morning-line odds. Video of her dirt work at Payson looked encouraging enough, but this mare also looks like negative value. Her favoritism rests upon two things: Chad Brown, and her showing in the Prix Rothschild. None of Excellent Truth’s other starts measure up, and even in the Rothschild her head carriage was less than perfect, and while the winner is top class, the third-place finisher isn’t.
What gives me pause siding against her: Previous connections made major changes in 2024, turning Excellent Truth from a hold-up horse in longer races into a miler running on or near the lead. Maybe that unlocked sustainable form.
Choisya’s form in England doesn’t stack up, but her Dubai races do, and if you think the mare just needed a flat, left-handed oval rather than English undulations, perhaps she’ll be just as good in America. Choisya comes off a rousing score over Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf runner-up Cinderella’s Dream, her sizzling 10.67-second final 200 meters getting her home. She offers better value than Excellent Truth.
The longer I looked at Jabaara, the less I rated her on par with the other two who raced in Europe. Her distant second in the Falmouth came in a four-horse photo finish for a second; Raqiya, who she beat home at Goodwood, to date has been a Grade 3 type.
Sacred Wish stands a better chance than the horse who beat her at Gulfstream, Be Your Best, and her morning-line 8-1 would be great value.
The 7-2 on Kehoe Beach – not so great. She’s the controlling speed and came home in 23.03 beating far softer foes last fall at Keeneland. I won’t be surprised if she sticks around after leading.
No Show Sammy Jo’s speed figures and accomplishments look light but I think there’s a lot more to the mare and I like her to upset this field.
No Show Sammy Jo several times has put up flashy finishing fractions, none more so than in the Long Island, where she went 10.98 her final furlong, nearly catching Be Your Best after falling much too far behind a slow tempo. While that was 11 furlongs, I like her more at this 1 1/16-mile trip, and video of a recent in-company work with high-quality Gimme a Nother was, to put it mildly, encouraging.
Apple Blossom
Frankly, a woeful cast in one of America’s top dirt routes for older fillies and mares. And if we’re going to continue calling this a handicap: Just 124 pounds for the Horse of the Year?
As for her, Thorpedo Anna, I still wonder if she’ll ever get back to her peak form from the Travers. Her comeback win, where she beat the accomplished but limited Free Like a Girl while getting two pounds, hardly rocked the world. Nor did her April 7 breeze, where Thorpedo Anna worked hard to finish on even terms with two-race maiden Honest Al.
I’ll take a shot at the overwhelming favorite with Where’s My Ring – and hope she’s higher than her 5-2 morning-line price. One might think her recent 103 Beyer Speed Figure came out of nowhere; it did not. I really liked this filly to win the Kentucky Oaks after a sharp score in the Gazelle and a series of terrible SoCal trips. She flopped in the Oaks and never came close to fulfilling her promise the rest of 2024, but did so in the recent Oaklawn win.
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Sure, Where’s My Ring had an easy trip against limited competition, but she finished like a real horse, her gallop-out just as strong as her stretch run.
Lexington
I had high hopes for Hypnus in the Louisiana Derby, hopes that were dashed before the three-furlong marker. The colt just didn’t travel at all in the race like he had winning his Fair Grounds debut. Hypnus had ample trouble in the Rebel, and if the addition of blinkers works like it might (note the fast recent Churchill work), he’s qualified to post a minor upset.
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