This space could have been entirely occupied by three Fair Grounds races.
Golden Tempo smartly won his debut sprinting last month looking like a two-turn stakes horse, but his 8-1 morning-line odds in the Lecomte seem like a pipe dream. Reagan’s Wit’s price will be right in the Colonel E.R. Bradley, and while I’m picking him to win, I don’t have quite enough confidence to tout him.
Instead, we’ll bop around the country, making stops in Maryland and California.
Louisiana
Just a Touch has looked like a Grade 1 horse in his three wins – maiden, first-level allowance, second-level allowance. You could say he validated that sense finishing second to Sierra Leone in the 2024 Blue Grass and third last summer in the Met Mile.
Running counter to the Grade 1 narrative are losses as an odds-on favorite in the Grade 3 Iowa Derby two summers ago and in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup this past July, Just a Touch’s most recent race, where he went down at 1-10.
Maybe it has just been a matter of timing, Just a Touch thriving physically before his wins and coming into the surprising stakes defeats less than 100 percent. Even trainer Brad Cox, who watches this horse breeze like Godzilla when he’s on his game, wonders if Just a Touch, now 5, will break through.
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You should wonder, too, if you’re playing Fair Grounds, where Just a Touch looks like an odds-on favorite in the Louisiana. He’s a forward horse drawn outside some other capable speed, and given the price and circumstances, I’m going against him.
That’s in part because of Just a Touch’s price and history, and in part because Moonlight in the last several months has emerged as a real horse. And it’s he, not Sir Greylind, that I expect to see rallying into a strong pace through the Fair Grounds homestretch.
It’s true that Moonlight might hit his peak in a one-turn Churchill Downs mile. Two of his best races, including his first stakes score, Nov. 30 in the Cherokee Mile, came in that kind of race. But let’s not overlook Moonlight’s two-turn, 1 1/16-mile Churchill score over stakes-level allowance competition when he returned from a layoff of nearly three months on Sept. 28.
Draw a line through the Schaefer Memorial. Moonlight raced wide and well off the pace over a surface overwhelmingly biased toward inside-speed horses. And his fifth in the Fayette was better than it looks on paper. Moonlight never looked fully comfortable at Keeneland but still was slogging on gamely when he was lightly checked in upper stretch. He’ll run much better than that Saturday – hopefully well enough to touch off Just a Touch.
Jennings
Quint’s Brew didn’t start between May 4 and Dec. 20, when he was beaten three lengths as an odds-on favorite in a race similar to the Jennings. Granted, he ran too keenly and didn’t have a great trip in that loss, but considering his excellent performance following a similar break about a year ago, it’d be difficult attributing the defeat to the long layoff.
Quint’s Brew figures to be heavily favored again, and while his form arc could be pointing down, Maclean’s Rook is on the way up.
Maclean’s Rook didn’t debut until summer of his 3-year-old season and looked after three starts like a mildly useful turf horse. Fourth out, connections kept him in an off-turf allowance race, and suddenly Maclean’s Rook looked like a very useful dirt horse.
As well as he performed in his dirt debut, Maclean’s Rook took another meaningful step forward Dec. 6, a race that looks good on paper and even better visually. I loved the way Maclean’s Rook picked up through the entire homestretch, and he’ll have no trouble cutting back to a one-turn mile.
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Unusual Heat
I see Hey Jessie as close to a standout in this race, and don’t see her getting bet that way at all.
A freshly turned 4-year-old filly facing older males, Hey Jessie already has run fast enough to win and has greater upside than any of her rivals. Even in her worst race this form cycle, on Sept. 1, Hey Jessie finished with interest, and her eighth against Grade 3 competition last out was a better effort than it looks on paper.
The filly stays, has a decent turn of foot, could benefit cutting back to 1 1/8 miles, and looks set to run the best race of her career.
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