The Pacific Classic tops a great Saturday of stakes action and holds special appeal because of something that’s engineered not to happen in American racing – a top 3-year-old facing a top older horse in August.
Nysos or Journalism, Journalism or Nysos: I have no idea. Fierceness is supposed to be the value but probably isn’t. Queen Maxima in the Green Flash almost made the cut. In the end, Del Mar stakes for me are a spectator sport.
Nashville Derby
Bellum Justum came from England to win the 2024 Nashville Derby, and England shipper Wimbledon Hawkeye is a better horse at this stage of his career. He has a tough draw, post 12, and his trainer has never run a horse in America. The track’s morning line lists him as the 7-2 favorite. Yet I’m still riding the Wimbledon Hawkeye train.
The Triple Crown horses figure for me in this order: Burnham Square, Hill Road, Final Gambit, Sandman, Tiztastic.
Burnham Square has a turfy stride to go with his turfy pedigree and has struggled handling dirt kickback. Look for him to bounce back from his disappointing Haskell. Hill Road appears to have worked well on grass; I’m not convinced he’s better on turf than dirt. First-time turfer Sandman’s grass works didn’t do much for me.
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Simulate and Noble Confessor got long looks. Simulate lost the Secretariat going into the first turn and should handle this longer trip, but the level of competition stiffens considerably, and I wonder if he’s good enough. Noble Confessor nearly beat top 3-year-old turf miler Zulu Kingdom in the Pilgrim last year, ran a subtly good race in the Breeders’ Cup, and is unexposed this season.
Post 12 going 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs since 2000 is 2 for 28. Taken as a whole, the four outside posts appear to be somewhat of a disadvantage but not a deal-breaker. Wimbledon Hawkeye possesses tactical pace, and with several no-speed horses drawn inside him, he can break alertly under an aggressive rider and find a good enough spot into a turn that comes up very quickly.
Wimbledon Hawkeye can’t crack the top echelon of European company – but he’s quite good. He lacked the speed to handle milers in the Craven and the 2000 Guineas, ran well enough to win this race in the Dante and the King Edward, and has improved in his two starts since. His form with Sword Dancer hero El Cordobes and sharp 3-year-old Merchant says that all the colt needs to win Saturday is any kind of decent trip.
Spinaway
I’ve been curious to see what they did with Percy’s Bar. The trainer told me a couple months ago they might wait for Churchill in September or Keeneland in October, but I think connections have found a grand spot for this filly.
Percy’s Bar showed professionalism you’re not supposed to see from an April 2-year-old winning her career debut at Keeneland. Just getting warmed up at that 4 1/2-furlong trip, she had reached the leaders at the quarter pole going three-quarters in the Debutante. That’s an important point: This filly in both races has shown an electric turn move, winning like a horse with gears, rather than deep-closing like Ornellaia in her debut score.
There’s recent Keeneland workout video available, and it’s easy to see Percy’s Bar has grown bigger and stronger since we last saw her race. I like the works, like the race shape, like the seven-eighths, and like her price in the Spinaway.
Flower Bowl
As long as Saratoga doesn’t take too much rain Thursday night into Friday, Bellezza is taking the Flower Bowl – though I fear on a dry course her price could fall below the morning line. That could happen if too many bettors feel like I do and want no part of 5-2 morning-line favorite Be Your Best.
Since an eye-catching North American debut win going the Flower Bowl distance in the Sheepshead Bay, Bellezza has caught wet, demanding grass courses. Her stablemate, La Mehana, loved the soft ground in the Glens Falls. Bellezza could not quicken over it.
Bellezza took a step back for whatever reason in the Blandford last September, but otherwise had been a very progressive 3-year-old who looked like she would hit her stride at age 4. Sodden courses tamped down Bellezza’s stride in her last two starts. If she can stay on top of the Saratoga turf Saturday, she’ll come out on top of the Flower Bowl.
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