Weekend GamePlan recently has gone cold. An unseasonably hot Saturday is forecast for the central swath of America. Let’s get warmed up.
Oaklawn Handicap
Just last week, Steve Asmussen, working for owner Winchell Thoroughbreds, masterfully prepared Extra Anejo to win the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland, the horse’s first start since September. An important win, the first in a stakes for a horse with a stallion career ahead of him.
The Winchell homebred Disarm didn’t start between September and March. He, too, could use a major win to enhance his stud value. There are several serious contenders, but this is Disarm’s spot.
First Mission nearly won the Razorback last month and needed the race, his first since last fall, more than the two who beat him. He’s displayed Grade 1 potential and figures to move forward. But – First Mission will be a shorter price than one would want, and he’s disappointed a couple times in similar spots. His big win in the Alysheba last spring came in a soft race.
Banishing has exploded into graded stakes form since David Jacobson took over his training, and in his early days, he looked like a router. Alexander Helios proved a revelation finishing in front of First Mission in the Razorback. But these two both want the front end. Throw Tarantino into the mix, and the Oaklawn Handicap won’t be won on the lead.
Skippylongstocking won this race easily a year ago and comes into it on the same pattern – Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream, Challenger at Tampa – but in better form. The work pattern since his last race looks strong on the page, video showing a couple of those works also encouraging. Yet after a surge of, “Skippy might offer a touch of value thanks to First Mission, and on paper looks like the horse,” I watched a bunch of his races dating to his 4-year-old season and came back less certain he stood out.
And so, back to Disarm.
Disarm, were this his 4-year-old campaign, would look like a major player off his Derby fourth and his equally good Travers second. But this is his 5-year-old campaign, and at age 4 he ran slower than he had the year before. Extra Anejo had a similar developmental arc, or lack thereof, and I thought he’d be retired this winter. Same with Disarm. The horses came back because Asmussen thought he could get more out of them.
Disarm posted his first official workout following his layoff on Dec. 31. He worked five furlongs six times before coming back with a faster race in a March 14 allowance than he ran in all but one start last year. He got a little tired last time, but all that foundation laid before his comeback, the comeback itself, and four more works – four of them! – has Disarm set to run his best race since the Travers. The setup should be there. The price will absolutely be there.
Elkhorn
Strong positive feelings about Missed the Cut in the Elkhorn, and he just might get close to the 6-1 morning line.
This horse came to America from England with connections targeting dirt. Missed the Cut did well on dirt. He’s better on turf, and the farther the previous trainer ran him a year ago, the better Missed the Cut performed.
The less said about his Royal Ascot trip the better, but Missed the Cut in a sixth-place Mac Diarmida finish showed he’s the same horse as he was a year ago. Missed the Cut lost all chance when taken up sharply before the first turn, the jockey nearly coming off the horse, the horse plummeting to last. Not done, he had run at the three-sixteenths pole but insufficient room to fully stride, and once loose, Missed the Cut finished with interest. His second in this race a year ago came behind Silver Knott, who returned to win two Grade 2s in New York.
Missed the Cut, with racing luck, will hit the mark in the Elkhorn.
Bathhouse Row
Caldera won’t be anywhere close to his 15-1 morning line, but I’ll take him over favored Instant Replay.
A move to route racing and the addition of blinkers brought Caldera to life over the winter. At Fair Grounds he stumbled significantly at the start and never recovered. At Sunland, he got a terrible ride, was best in the race.
In the Bathhouse Row, he needs only sit just off the flank of Hymn to get a great trip. Instant Replay won’t get the same setup he did last time and stands to regress anyway.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.