The Pegasus World Cup caps a truly excellent card at Gulfstream. Should be a fun race to watch – and watching is all I plan to do. Other Gulfstream stakes hold greater appeal, while an upset could be brewing in the Oaklawn feature.
Pegasus World Cup Turf
Granted, Nations Pride didn’t run to form in the 2023 Bahrain International Trophy, but if we’re going to assume he’ll assert inherent superiority (at a price lower than the listed 2-1), couldn’t we have seen even a tiny spark at Doha in the same race this past November?
While he finished third in the Dubai Turf in his last try over this nine-furlong trip, Nations Pride best suits 10 furlongs. He can be beaten.
Mi Hermano Ramon leads the Californian contingent. He had no answer when Johannes attacked in the final furlong of the San Gabriel, but Johannes over the last year has been America’s best middle-distance grass horse, and Mi Hermano Ramon got stuck three to four wide with no cover on the far turn. His trainer, perhaps notably, has gone 8-0-0-2 over the last five years in stakes outside California.
Integration proved no match for Nations Pride going 10 furlongs last summer, and while his body of work makes him a legitimate second choice, I’m siding with his Shug McGaughey-trained stablemate Battle of Normandy, who doesn’t look like a 20-1 shot but still could hit double-digit odds.
Battle of Normandy shows a classic McGaughey slow-moving development arc – and develop he has. Now 5, Battle of Normandy showed turf talent at 2 but through his first six starts lacked any semblance of positional pace. Now, the one-run closer has become a horse who can lead or press and deploy his turn of foot coming into the homestretch.
He showed, beating subsequent multiple graded stakes winner Truly Quality at Saratoga, he stays at least 11 furlongs, but this 1 1/8-mile trip is his sweet spot.
There’s no real pace entered, and even from post 10, Battle of Normandy can get over to lead or press what almost has to be a moderate tempo. That’s his ideal trip, and while Integration might (hard to tell from camera position) have slightly bested him in a team turf work Jan. 12, Battle of Normandy knocked him around on dirt a week later.
Southwest
Gaming looks somewhat exposed, but the Southwest’s other short price, Patch Adams, could be anything.
His second-start maiden win shook the earth, and on Jan. 12 Patch Adams in a team workout bossed older horse Hit Show, who then won the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes. I expected more of the same from Patch Adams’s workout on Jan. 19 – but didn’t see it.
Maybe Patch Adams wasn’t asked for much, had an off day, whatever. But combining the breeze with his expected price and the fact Patch Adams is a pace player making his two-turn debut in a speed-packed field lands Patch Adams on the play-against list.
Sandman ought to benefit from a fast, contested pace, but not as a grinding closer. This colt has talent, tactical speed, and showed an electric finish in his last-start Oaklawn win. There, he beat capable colts, and while Sandman got a favorable trip, he kicked home encouragingly in a race that ended at the sixteenth pole.
Saturday’s longer stretch run helps him. Moreover, that last race didn’t come out of the blue: His Saratoga maiden win rated above par, and after development stalled through the fall, Sandman is back on the right track. And in the Southwest, he might have found the right spot.
Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf
Dona Clota could prove a legitimate Grade 1 horse based on video of her recent Chilean races, but she’s not catching Raqiya going 1 1/16 miles on a course with a short stretch run.
Raqiya made vast progress from age 2 to 3. Racing as far as seven furlongs for the first time in the Oak Tree at Goodwood, she would’ve beaten Jabaara had that filly not taken her path away in the final furlong, and Jabaara just had finished second in the Group 1 Falmouth.
Making her U.S. debut at Del Mar, Raqiya showed speed and handiness crossing and clearing from post 10, and after leading, she whistled her final furling in 11.16 seconds and won going away. Subsequent dirt workout video at Payson Park looks very encouraging, and when In Our Time tries for the lead, Raqiya lands a perfect pocket trip. If she gets out, she wins.
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