Mid-Atlantic madness! Delaware and Monmouth form the backbone of this Saturday’s continental body of stakes races. It’s gonna be a hot one at both places – and let’s hope the same from Weekend GamePlan, which is back from a freshening.
Salvator Mile
I will confess to not knowing the intimate details regarding the career of the 6-year-old gelding Offaly Cool. Come to find, this horse has some real spark to him – perhaps enough to upset the Salvator Mile.
In a vacuum, that would take some doing. Bishops Bay absolutely has hit a far higher level than the admirable Offaly Cool. So, for that matter, have East Avenue and Point Dume. That trio – and others! – share another characteristic: They very much want to race forwardly.
That’s the potential key to the Salvator Mile – an early pace overload. Yes, yes, yes, we all know the old saw, that jockeys can read the Form, too, and that when they see what we handicappers see, too much speed, they are liable to adjust tactics. Here, I think there’s just too much speed.
Moreover, I’m skeptical of all the shorter prices. Why is Bishops Bay even in this relatively low-level race? Wouldn’t you think connections hoped the Westchester was a prep for the Met Mile? This is a 6-year-old horse: Isn’t the goal here to win a Grade 1? The horse hit a 5-year-old peak that I’d guess he never finds this year at age 6.
East Avenue – want no part of him. He’s drawn widest and, frankly, never fulfilled the promise he showed at 2. Blips last season but looks like an even lesser version of himself so far this year.
Point Dume does get a steep class drop, but his recent improvement came so quickly, so dramatically, I’d predict a similarly dramatic fall. Plus, he’s the one drawn inside all the other pace.
Grande? His name far outstrips his baseline performance level, one big Beyer in a modest allowance race inflating the name recognition.
Offaly Cool wants to come from off the pace, though not nearly so far off it as he found himself in his 2025 finale, where he leapt into the air at the start and spotted decent rivals 10 lengths or so. He still won that race, nor was that showing some sort of outlier – Offaly Cool just has developed into a reliable listed-stakes class horse. His best lick, to me, comes at this two-turn-mile trip.
The layoff? He’s not a big, heavy guy at all, and when a horse shows up at the track working a half-mile, then goes right onto five-furlong drills, be sure he had already done some fairly serious work off the racetrack.
Cape Henlopen
Granted, I felt like an idiot taking Soleil Volant second in his May 14 start, then watching him win at 25-1. But I don’t think it’s too late to get a little Soleil at a price.
The Keeneland comeback run is a red herring. Don’t now why Soleil Volant ran so dully there, and don’t care, but do know he had been outworking Test Score – a good closing second last weekend in the Grade 1 Manhattan – before that start, and that the Churchill victory was just more of the same improvement we saw at the end of his 3-year-old season. The 11 furlongs he raced last time marked his longest trip so far, and this 1 1/2-mile trip will work even better. He’s a Delaware turf stakes winner, and he’s a grand price once again.
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Monomoy Girl
Is the Monomoy Girl much tougher than a salty first-level allowance? I don’t think so, and if you saw La Rascasse show up in a salty first-level allowance, you’d surely accord her a decent chance off her impressive debut.
Granted, she won by just a head, but look at the huge gap back from second to third in that extended sprint at Keeneland. And, while you’re at it, look at the race replay and see that margin quickly and steadily widen past the wire and through the gallop-out.
This is a robust filly. She looks through and through like a route horse, and nothing in the way she sprinted counters that impression. Her rateable speed ought to be deployed to good effect in a short field where the only other front-runner drew the rail. La Rascasse should press, pounce, and move forward enough to hold clear the closers. The morning-line price, 9-2, would be acceptable to me.
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