Winter trickles along, decent racing weekends here and there, then suddenly it’s March. Derby preps pop up weekly. Keeneland right around the corner, just behind it, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown. Buckle up.
Tampa Bay Derby
Were Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna not making her comeback at Oaklawn, Tampa Bay would attract all the eyes Saturday. Every stakes on their card holds appeal, an excellent program culminating in the meet’s most important race.
Chancer McPatrick and Patch Adams will be favored in this seven-runner field, likely the former over the latter.
Sure, at two or three times the expected win price, one might bet Chancer McPatrick proves more than the one-run, one-turn horse his 2-year-old form suggested he is. The pedigree leans route. I’m less than sanguine. Minor post-Breeders’ Cup bone-chip surgery, a quarter crack – the colt’s winter has not been trouble-free. His modest BC Juvenile came with no ready excuse.
After Patch Adams’s Churchill maiden and a couple of spectacular drills at Payson Park, he had the appearance of a serious Derby threat. But in his final breeze for the Southwest Stakes, Patch Adams got outworked by Tappan Street in a breeze far less impressive than his previous moves.
A poor Southwest break didn’t help, but Patch Adams’s middle move lacked flash and sputtered at the furlong grounds; he couldn’t nab third from the limited Tiztastic. One subsequent workout video failed to suggest an imminent rebound.
Owen Almighty brings solid form, but I’m on Hill Road.
This might be simple: Chancer McPatrick had every chance to run as well as Hill Road in the BC Juvenile, but it was Hill Road who belatedly found stride and finished with aplomb for a good third. He did so despite failing to change leads in the homestretch while making his dirt debut after shipping from Ireland, hardly an ideal circumstance.
Hill Road ran somewhat flat second out in a Group 1 after a sharp debut score where he showed much more pace than he did at Del Mar. New trainer Chad Brown adds blinkers, a good move for Brown, and while Hill Road started his career overseas, his is a dirt pedigree.
Former trainer Adrian Murray, announcing Hill Road would stay in America after the Juvenile, suggested the colt might have Kentucky Derby-level talent. We’re about to find out – and at the right price.
Florida Oaks
Brown talked up Opulent Restraint to DRF’s David Grening, and in accordance with Brown’s assertion the filly would improve considerably at age 3, workout video from Payson Park hinted at a filly with more substance than last year.
And I’m not certain Brown’s supposed “B” team, Brillante, doesn’t stand a solid chance, too. Don’t know who unearthed her from those longshot runs (both with some things to like) at provincial French tracks, but that Tampa maiden win showed promise.
Nitrogen merits favoritism, and we have several European imports to sort through. Celtic Motif is the one who made group stakes company, but she was all out holding third in a modest Group 3 over soft ground, and while she finished well at Gulfstream in her North American debut, she did nevertheless lose a maiden race.
Pretty Lavish is 2 for 2 and holds promise, but Lush Lips, who has been in America since last summer, rates the best Florida Oaks chance.
Her first start for trainer Brendan Walsh yielded an utterly dominant Tapeta maiden win, and Lush Lips last out proved much the best in a decent allowance race despite pulling far too hard in the early stages. Walsh since has steadily worked her behind horses, Lush Lips relaxing and finishing.
She’s improving, and if she can bring her morning attitude to this Tampa afternoon, she’ll control the pace, kick clear in upper stretch, and prove uncatchable.
San Simeon
I gave up on the Beholder Mile after shuffling between four horses. What about Air Force Red cutting back from a Grade 1 mile to a Grade 3 sprint in the San Simeon?
Air Force Red, when he first came to hand, excelled over the Santa Anita downhill course. He ran just as well as the winner who got through along the fence finishing second over this trip last September, and in December, in his most recent sprint, Air Force Red found himself hopelessly blocked in the homestretch.
His one-week turnaround might be a good thing: Over the last five years, trainer Leonard Powell in California has gone 5-0-3-2 with stakes horses racing 14 days or fewer after their previous start.
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