It’s a game of opinions, right? And isn’t it also a game where opinion should bend with the accumulation of evidence? And, as trainer Steve Asmussen often has pointed out, in this game you need not merely state an opinion: You can bet on it.
Travers
Asmussen sends out a horse that as of a couple weeks ago would not, in my opinion, win the Travers Stakes. The Travers always has been Sovereignty’s race.
Guess I’m not a charter member of the Sovereignty Fan Club, but I do hold full membership, and long ago took out an annual subscription to the Bill Mott Fan Club. And it’s my opinion that Mott, even last summer, had a solid idea what sort of beast had entered his barn.
We might be watching the development of a truly great colt. Why did Mott pass the Preakness with this Kentucky Derby winner? To maintain greatest possible control of Sovereignty’s day-to-day fitness, soundness, and overall well-being not merely for this campaign but, perhaps, next year’s. If one really wanted to win the Travers, to go into autumn with the best chance of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, missing the Preakness would seem worth it.
With Sovereignty workouts, look for subtle clues. They don’t just let him go out there and rip. Since Sovereignty long ago reached full fitness, and through spring and summer became a much better work horse, they only let him really stretch out in short bursts. Take his most recent breeze. The rider less than a furlong from the wire cues Sovereignty to quicken and gets an instant, eye-catching response.
Sovereignty can run his race and still lose because the Asmussen-trained Magnitude comes into the Travers fresh, with a tactical edge, and with sufficient talent to press his advantages and offer all the value in the win pool.
I didn’t see his Risen Star coming, but I’d say the Iowa Derby made it look more like a real thing than a fluke. Magnitude also might be special. I really like the look of recent Saratoga work video, and while Magnitude will prove the controlling speed, he’s no run-off.
Sovereignty could be in for a much more demanding trip, forced into chase mode behind a worthy rival a long way from the finish. And if Magnitude runs on like I expect, he might, in my opinion, spoil Mott’s Travers party.
Personal Ensign
Since Thorpedo Anna barely beat Gun Song in the Cotillion, I’ve questioned whether the filly left her heart on the track nearly beating Fierceness in the Travers Stakes. She since has won a Breeders’ Cup Distaff and, easily, the Apple Blossom, yet my feelings haven’t changed.
Last year’s Distaff was subpar, and Thorpedo Anna this year – all due respect to an improved Royal Spa – hasn’t beaten a true Grade 1 animal. It look 38.01 seconds for her to cover the last three furlongs of the Fleur de Lis, and it’s not like Thorpedo Anna’s been working lights-out since then.
Randomized drew the rail and as a confirmed front-runner might face sustained pace pressure. I’m still backing her.
When people mention the cases in which Randomized has dictated a slow pace on the way to victory, I mention the 2023 BC Distaff. Neither did Randomized cakewalk around Saratoga in the 2023 Alabama, and before busting last month’s Molly Pitcher open in upper stretch, she went a good early clip.
That performance, in fact, impressed me, and Randomized in recent workout video looks like a mare who came out of the race in roaring form, ready for something even stronger. I like her to shrug off the other pace and then hold off the 2024 Horse of the Year.
Pat O’Brien
Dr. Venkman’s trainer, Mark Glatt, has made no secret of the fact that Dr. Venkman doesn’t like racing inside, and in his last two starts, Dr. Venkman has gotten hopelessly pinned down on the inside.
Yes, he’s drawn the rail here, but there’s so much Pat O’Brien pace that jockey Umberto Rispoli ought to find a way off the fence and out into the clear going around the far turn. And if he does, Dr. Venkman, back at a more suitable distance, and back at his favorite track, can run down the tiring speed.
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