The highest-level North American race Saturday comes in California, the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Looking for value in that short field, basically a Bob Baffert intramural, feels like trying to squeeze blood from a stone.
The richest open North American races come at Turfway Park, which never has short fields and has assembled four wildly competitive Saturday stakes. The 2-year-old turf races at Gulfstream also hold betting appeal, as do a pair of $500,000 New York stallion stakes at Aqueduct.
Tropical Park Oaks
You won’t see it in her final-time speed figures, and she did get a late start to her career, but Random Harvest has, if not star potential, serious graded stakes potential. I expect her to manifest that talent at a fair price while making her stakes debut.
This grass race drew an overflow field that includes six fillies that I can imagine winning (I most fear Waskesiu), and Random Harvest ought to offer fair odds. There’s obviously more to her candidacy than merely the 2-for-2 record.
A sister to Grade 1 grass winner Full Count Felicia, Random Harvest debuted at Kentucky Downs. She did not just win by open lengths over several competent opponents, she won easily and looked like a winner most of the trip.
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Wide around the turn, Random Harvest traveled sweetly while beautifully in the bridle, then, without being asked, jumped on the leaders in a matter of strides while bending into the long homestretch. She opened daylight under no pressure from her jockey, who wound up going to the crop five times but probably didn’t need to.
Going from one mile to 1 3/16 miles, moving from maiden to allowance, and switching from Kentucky Downs to Keeneland, Random Harvest should’ve been up against it her second start, especially breaking from post 12. Instead, she again proved much the best. There’s speed signed on here, a good thing for our girl, and I believe this filly will benefit cutting back to a middle distance from the longer race last time. Her workmate in the lone post-Keeneland workout video hasn’t run especially fast, but I really liked the way Random Harvest breezed. Good already – more to come.
Prairie Bayou
While Hush of a Storm does not figure to go off as high as his 8-1 morning line in the Prairie Bayou, he does figure to offer a playable price as the presumed “B” Team for trainer Brad Cox, who also sends morning-line favorite Wadsworth.
Cox doesn’t claim many horses but plucked this gelding out of a New York-bred race at Saratoga for $45,000 over the summer. As well as he’s run in three starts since the claim, it’s likely none of those were ultimately the goal for a horse who has gone 4-1-3 from nine starts over the Tapeta at Turfway.
I don’t know how Hush of a Storm didn’t win three back at Presque Isle. He looked a sure winner in upper stretch. That came before two solid showings in New York-bred turf stakes; his fourth last out when too far behind a walking pace was just as strong as his win the time before.
Now, a nice freshening, a return to his favorite track, a cozy rail draw under an ace Turfway pilot – and a rare Brad Cox winner at a square price.
New York Stallion Stakes – Fifth Avenue
Seven fillies in this competitive New York stallion stakes share one characteristic: a Beyer Speed Figure improvement of 10 points or greater from their first start to their second. That’s what young horses with some ability tend to do – get faster.
Storm Changer in her lone start, a winning debut, earned a 56. According to the Beyers, she needs to run faster to win Saturday. According to me, she will.
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Here we’re ignoring a general rule: Steer clear in the second race of debut winners who employ a deep-closing style.
In this case, we’re talking about a filly who got off to a slow start and might have more speed than she showed first out. She also ripped through her final furlong in 11.82 and her last quarter in 23.83, strong stuff for a New York-bred 2-year-old, and galloped out after her win like six furlongs just warmed her up.
A sharp gate work back at her home track since the debut gives her a chance, like many of these fillies already have done, to improve in her second race.
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